25 Central Bank Meetings This Week, Led by Fed
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The financial landscape is poised for a pivotal moment as central banks around the world prepare for a week of decisive interest rate meetingsWith the Canadian Central Bank and several European counterparts leading the charge towards potential rate cuts, the upcoming "Central Bank Super Week" promises to be a spectacle of monetary policy shiftsNotably, the week will witness the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England among others, with a remarkable 25 central banks set to deliberate on interest ratesThis unprecedented convergence underscores the significance of these economies, collectively representing nearly 40% of the global economic output.
This "Central Bank Super Week," which marks the end of the year, is expected to capture the attention of investors worldwideIn the fast-paced environment of foreign exchange and commodities trading, market fluctuations are likely to be exacerbated by the decisions made by these central banks, leading to rapid shifts within mere hours.
Among these central banks, the G10 nations stand out, with a notable five representatives involved in policymaking—essentially controlling half of the currencies that account for the majority of global trading volume.
Analysts suggest that as central bank officials deliberate the diverse risks anticipated for the upcoming year, the outcomes of these meetings may reflect an increasingly imbalanced trend towards global monetary easing
This week, the spotlight will particularly shine on three of the most scrutinized central banks—the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan—each potentially charting different paths amidst a complex economic backdrop.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to implement a rate cut this week, likely marking its third consecutive reductionMarket sentiment indicates that traders foresee a staggering 93% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming December 17-18 meetingHowever, stronger than anticipated U.Seconomic data has introduced some level of uncertainty regarding a potential halt on future cuts early in 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting, along with the latest dot plot forecasts, will be critical in shaping market expectations.
Additionally, the Swedish Central Bank is also in the crosshairs this week, with many economists predicting a 25 basis point reduction—a more measured decline following last month's substantial 50 basis point cut
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Although Sweden's core inflation has recently reached a six-month high, this seems unlikely to deter the central bank's easing measures.
Turning to emerging markets, while Brazil has been on an aggressive rate-hiking spree, its Latin American neighbors are in a contrasting position, likely to embark on their own easing cyclesThis week, the central banks of Chile, Mexico, and Colombia are anticipated to announce rate cutsIn Asia, the central bank of Pakistan is also expected to begin its rate-cutting trajectory due to a deceleration in inflation, alongside predictions for similar cuts from Indonesia and the Philippines.
While numerous central banks are set to lower rates, a contingent remains observed on maintaining their current stance, with the Bank of England being a key figure among themThe swap market projects with near certainty that the Bank of England will keep its rates unchanged during this crucial meeting, signaling a continued cautious approach to monetary easing
In 2024, the bank has only cut rates twice, maintaining stability that has contributed to the British pound's unique resilience against the dollar amidst a turbulent currency environment.
In neighboring Norway, it is anticipated that the central bank will hold its rate steady at 4.5%. After a year of declining core inflation trends, Norwegian policymakers are now faced with a more buoyant economic outlook driven by domestic demandThe central bank is likely to affirm its willingness to commence cuts only in the coming year.
Other European central banks that may opt for a pause this week include the Hungarian Central Bank and the Czech National BankWith inflation accelerating and the Forint lingering near a two-year low, the Hungarian authorities are inclined to maintain existing borrowing costsMeanwhile, the Czech policymakers are deliberating a pause on their easing stance.
In Asia as well, the Bank of Thailand is anticipated to hold the benchmark rate at 2.25%, reflecting cautious optimism in economic recovery.
Amid these divergent responses, a few central banks are braving the tide of monetary easing—a rare occurrence in the current economic climate
The Bank of Japan's ongoing discussions surrounding its next rate hike mark it as a focal point along with the Federal ReserveCurrently, market expectations lean towards the possibility of further tightening early next year, rather than immediate action.
Insider reports suggest that Japan is unlikely to raise rates in this week's meeting unless there emerges substantial downward pressure on the yen, intensifying import pricesWith the looming December meeting, concern is swelling regarding the ramifications of U.Stariffs on Japanese corporations, particularly those reliant on exports.
In contrast, the Russian Central Bank faces intense pressure due to the ruble's depreciation and is likely to announce a major rate hikeMarket forecasting indicates a potential increase of up to 200 basis points this Friday, pushing the rate to a historic 23% as inflationary pressures significantly exceed the 4% target.
In this dynamic atmosphere, investors and stakeholders are navigating through these tumultuous waters, keenly watching the signals emanating from these pivotal meetings
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